This week features three “marquee ranked games” and I think there are a bunch of other games that I think are very interesting as we near the end of out of conference play and near conference season.
Week 2 ATS: 8-10
Season ATS: 19-18-1
#1 Alabama (-14.5) @ #11 Florida: I am intrigued by Florida. They haven’t played a good team yet and are giving up 17 pts/gm. But offensively I think they may be able to compete with Bama (famous last words). QB’s Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson provide a unique challenge to the Bama defense and it is possible that Bama isn’t as good as we think. That being said, Bama minus the points against anyone.
Final Score: Alabama 38, Florida 17
#2 Georgia (-31.5) vs. South Carolina: Georgia really impressed me last week, beating up on a very good UAB team. I don’t have a play here because the points feel like too much, but I like UGA a lot this year.
#3 Oklahoma (-23.5) vs. Nebraska: Oklahoma shook off the rust last week against a cupcake. Nebraska did impress me beating a solid Buffalo team by a lot, but I am still dubious of how good they are. Give me the Sooners minus the points.
Final Score: Oklahoma 41, Nebraska 17
#4 Oregon (-40.5) vs Stony Brook: Oregon was VERY good last week in Columbus. This is an obvious hangover game and I am only going with Stony Brook and the points for that reason.
Final Score: Oregon 41, Stony Brook 3
#5 Iowa (-22.5) vs. Kent State: It may be my last stand on this one, but Iowa is not very good at least when it relates to top end teams in the country. They were very lucky last week against Iowa State. Kent State is a solid enough team and I am fading Iowa, that I’ll take the Golden Flashes and the points.
Final Score: Iowa 27, Kent State 10
#6 Clemson (-28) vs. Georgia Tech: No play. I have no idea how good Clemson really is.
#7 Texas A&M (-30) vs. New Mexico: This is a play on the Aggies. They didn’t play well last week at Colorado. Coming home against a Lobo team that hasn’t played anyone good, I’ll take A&M.
Final Score: Texas A&M 48, New Mexico 3
#8 Cincinnati (-3.5) @ Indiana: Something feels wrong with Indiana. I normally would take them and the points in this spot, but I really do like the Bearcats and their defense. Possible lookahead spot for Cincy with Notre Dame on deck, but I’ll take the Bearcats in a tight defensive battle.
Final Score: Cincinnati: 24, Indiana 17
#9 Ohio State (-25) vs. Tulsa: Ohio State coming off a home loss is an automatic play here. Give me the Buckeyes minus the points.
Final Score: Ohio State 49, Tulsa 10
#10 Penn State (-5) vs. #22 Auburn: This should be a fun game. Auburn hasn’t played anyone of consequence yet. Penn State has been better than advertised but still hasn’t looked good offensively. In a “white out” game against an opponent that hasn’t proved anything, I’ll take the Nittany Lions.
Final Score: Penn State 27, Auburn 20
#12 Notre Dame (-7.5) vs. Purdue: I’m not sure how good Purdue is, but I know Notre Dame isn’t nearly as good as their ranking. That being said, I think they do just enough here to cover.
Final Score: Notre Dame 34, Purdue 24
#13 UCLA (-11) vs. Fresno State: I am higher on UCLA than most, but I really like Fresno State. They played Oregon really tough and we saw how good Oregon is last week. I think UCLA wins but give me the points.
Final Score: UCLA 38, Fresno State 30
#14 Iowa State (-32.5) @ UNLV: Iowa State has been awful for the first two games this year, but this is a play on them getting back on track.
Final Score: Iowa State 44, UNLV 10
#15 Virginia Tech (+2) @ West Virginia: This is the smelly Vegas line of the week and we don’t fight that.
Final Score: West Virginia 27, Virginia Tech 24
#16 Coastal Carolina (-14) @ Buffalo: I was really disappointed in Buffalo last week, I thought they would play a lot better against Nebraska and I was wrong. I’ll double down on them here and see if they can keep it close against the Chanticleers.
Final Score: CCU 37, Buffalo 24
#17 Ole Miss (-14) Tulane: Tulane played Oklahoma really tough in Norman and then dominated FCS Morgan State. Ole Miss should be able to move the ball easily, but I think Tulane can as well. In a shootout, take the points and sprinkle a bit on the moneyline.
Final Score: Ole Miss 44, Tulane 34
#19 Arizona State (-3.5) @ #23 BYU (-3.5): BYU played great in the Holy War against Utah. I usually would take the short road favorite here, but something about ASU is rubbing me the wrong way. Give me BYU in a close game.
Final Score: BYU 27, Arizona State 23
#20 Arkansas (-23) vs. Georgia Southern: I correctly predicted the Arkansas win vs Texas last week. This week, I go against the Razorbacks as they may still be a bit hungover from Week 2. GSU is a triple option team and can bleed the clock. I think it’ll be a much closer game than people think.
Final Score: Arkansas 33, Georgia Southern 18
#21 North Carolina (-8) vs. Virginia: I really have no idea where to go with this game. UVA has played very well this year, and I am unsure how good the Tar Heels are. No play.
#24 Miami (Fl) (-6.5) vs. Michigan State: Give me MSU here. Miami has been tough to decipher all season long. I don’t like it being less than a touchdown, but I think MSU is good enough to win on the road and at minimum, keep it close.
Final Score: Michigan State 30, Miami 27
#25 Michigan (-27.5) vs. Ball State: Michigan has been better than I thought and usually dominates games against MAC opponents. Give me the Wolverines here big.
Final Score: Michigan 42, NIU, 13
Other Interesting Games:
Texas (-26) vs. Rice: Texas gets right against Rice.
Final Score: Texas 41, Rice 13
Boise State (-3) vs. Oklahoma State: I think the Broncos are too much for the Cowboys here.
Final Score: Boise State 31, OSU 24
Stanford (-12.5) vs. Vanderbilt: I don’t think Vandy is particularly good but this is a play against Stanford.
Final Score: Stanford 27, Vanderbilt 17